Qualitative Forecasting

QUALITATIVE FORECASTING METHODS Qualitative prognosticateing methods are establish on educated opinions of appropriate persons 1. Delphi method: forecast is create by a panel of experts who anonymously answer a series of questions; responses are fed back to panel members who accordingly may change their original responses a- very time go through and expensive b- new groupware makes this process much more feasible 2. Market investigate: panels, questionnaires, test markets, surveys, etc. 3. Product life-cycle analogy: forecasts ground on life-cycles of exchangeable products, services, or processes 4. Expert judgement: by management, sales force, or other knowledgeable persons [pic] QUANTITATIVE FORECASTING METHODS TIME serial publication FORECASTING METHODS Time series forecasting methods are based on analysis of historical data (time series: a set of observations measured at successive times or over successive periods). They make the assumption that past patterns in data can be used to forecast upcoming data points. 1.

Moving numbers (simple moving average, weighted moving average): forecast is based on arithmetic average of a given up number of past data points 2. Exponential smoothing (single exponential smoothing, icon exponential smoothing) - a type of weighted moving average that allows inclusion of trends, etc. 3. Mathematical models (trend lines, log-linear models, Fourier series, etc.) - linear or non-linear models fitted to time-series data, usually by regression methods 4. Box-Jenkins methods: autocorrelation methods used to identify underlying time series and to fit the best model COMPONENTS OF TIME SERIES DEMAND 1. Average: the mean value of... If you want to get a full essay, order it on our website: Orderessay

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